SIXONE8 RESEARCH

Evidence on how markets and trading rules have behaved, with the method in full.

Each paper measures a widely used idea across our stored market history, compares it with a baseline that tells chance from effect, and publishes the data window, costs, statistics and limitations alongside the result.

Every number computed from our own stored candlesMethod and costs in every paperLosing results published too
LATEST · NO. 3 · OCTOBER 2026

Is price drawn to its moving average?

294,318 returns to the average in 81 forex, metals and crypto markets, October 2022 to September 2026, set against copies of the same markets with no memory. Moving averagesMean reversionBaselinesMarket structure Read the paper
FIGURE 1Two returns to EMA(20): who did the travelling?
Price came back to the averageEUR/USD, 1-hour candles, 27 Jun – 28 Jun 2024
starttouch
Gap at the start 2.2 ATR · price travelled +1.7 · the average travelled +0.5
The average came to priceBTC/USD, 1-hour candles, 24 Feb – 25 Feb 2024
starttouch
Gap at the start 2.2 ATR · price travelled -0.1 · the average travelled +2.3
Source: SixOne8 Research, from Twelve Data candles stored by SixOne8.
ALL PAPERS
No. 3October 2026 Is price drawn to its moving average?294,318 returns to the average in 81 forex, metals and crypto markets, October 2022 to September 2026, set against copies of the same markets with no memory. 10 min read · 15 pagesRead the paper → No. 2October 2026 Do moving-average crossovers hold up after costs?Evidence from 81 forex, metals and crypto markets, October 2023 to September 2026. 10 min read · 13 pagesRead the paper → No. 1September 2026 How often do opening gaps in US stocks fill?Evidence from 207 US stocks and ETFs, November 2022 to September 2026, measured minute by minute. 11 min read · 12 pagesRead the paper →

SixOne8 Research describes how prices and rules behaved on historical data. It is not investment advice and does not indicate future results. Trading carries risk of loss.